Gold!

Gold!

Gold (gold) Always believe in your soul You’ve got the power to know You’re indestructible, always believing -Spandau Ballet (1983) I imagine that most central banks secretly dream about becoming a safe haven. Yes, it comes with a lot of responsibility, and you have...
Data Matters

Data Matters

In our business—measuring financial risk in all its glorious variations—data is so absolutely foundational that it does not occur to us to imagine a world without it. But if we were to entertain that thought experiment, a world without data would be like a mind...
Annoying Context

Annoying Context

One of the most annoying things about economic indicators is that they need context. A number does not make sense on its own. You also have to know where it is coming from, whose perspective you’re taking, and why. So, when we tell you that the yields on 30-year...
Shrinking Carrot,  Flailing Stick

Shrinking Carrot, Flailing Stick

The conventional thinking, that you can motivate others to do what you want with a mixture of punishment and reward, is at best shortsighted and outdated. Its biggest flaw is that it assumes away any agency and integrity on behalf of those you try to motivate. The...
The Yellow Speech  or the Green Speech?

The Yellow Speech or the Green Speech?

In the seminal Danish movie The Celebration (1998), a family and guests are gathered for the 60th birthday of the patriarch, Helge. Christian, the oldest son, gives Helge the choice between the yellow and the green speech. Helge chooses the green one, which turns out...