Good News, Eh!

Good News, Eh!

It is second nature to me, both as a risk manager and a parent, to focus on the worst-case scenario first. That makes for an, shall we say, interesting size of my amygdala*. What I am dancing around is that there was some good news that almost slipped by unnoticed, so...
Same Time, Elsewhere

Same Time, Elsewhere

As we have mentioned before, the global economy is comprised by more countries than the United States of America and while those other countries are keeping a close eye on what’s going on stateside—either for direction or counterpoint—they are also having their own...
How to Dismantle Two Economic Bombs

How to Dismantle Two Economic Bombs

The Fed cut its target rates this week. It was long-awaited and bigger than expected, both literally and symbolically. In number terms, the rates were lowered half a percentage point. In meaning terms, the rate cut was a turning point into the rarely visited Soft...
Stick the Soft Landing

Stick the Soft Landing

We were so close! The economic floor routine to stick a soft landing—taming inflation with high rates without causing a recession—seemed on track and within reach and expectations were running high and then a few things happened in rapid succession: BoJ hiked their...
I Will Be Your Predictor

I Will Be Your Predictor

The Risk Report is always excited to dive into news details that validate what it already believes to be true. And if it can be combined with topical lyrics from Queen Bey, it is even better. So, remember the yield curve? The one by all measures has been inverted for...