Stick the Soft Landing

Stick the Soft Landing

We were so close! The economic floor routine to stick a soft landing—taming inflation with high rates without causing a recession—seemed on track and within reach and expectations were running high and then a few things happened in rapid succession: BoJ hiked their...
In Their Swings Era

In Their Swings Era

Back in 1967, there was a Danish variety show featuring a song called The Swings and The Carousels. The chorus ran along the lines of: We need to earn on the swings What we lost on the carousels Referring to the old amusement park, Tivoli, in Copenhagen, it is...
How Deep Is Your Loss?

How Deep Is Your Loss?

Banks should hold enough capital. That is hard to argue with no matter if you are on Team Regulator or Team Bank. Where it gets a little more contentious is how much is enough.   Burned by the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, regulators far and wide tend to equate...
This Is An Inter-yen-tion

This Is An Inter-yen-tion

Many of us know the chain of events set in motion, when you tell a toddler in very specific terms what they should NOT do. Sometimes financial markets act in the same way. In this year’s yen episodes, the grown-up is the Japanese top foreign-exchange official, Masato...
Conscious Uncoupling

Conscious Uncoupling

Yes, I am that old.* Sometimes, when a group of big economies have been through some tough times together, but then find they are recovering at different speeds, they might have to start lowering their interest rates before the biggest one is ready. That doesn’t mean...