Situationships

Situationships

There used to be some correlations we could rely on; when you didn’t bring your umbrella it rains, they announce a new smartphone the week after you bought the latest one, and when the dollar is up, gold and oil are down. So far in 2024, the gold price has gained more...
I Will Be Your Predictor

I Will Be Your Predictor

The Risk Report is always excited to dive into news details that validate what it already believes to be true. And if it can be combined with topical lyrics from Queen Bey, it is even better. So, remember the yield curve? The one by all measures has been inverted for...
Diss Tracks—Bank Edition

Diss Tracks—Bank Edition

We all know how it started. Last summer Team Regulator slammed Team Bank hard with a proposal that among other stingers would mean an almost 20% increase—AKA $150bn—in the core capital requirement for Club G-SIB. A G-SIB is a Global Systemically Important Bank. The...
Is Your CECL System Meeting Your Needs?

Is Your CECL System Meeting Your Needs?

Much has changed since CECL became effective—data has grown, technologies have advanced. While those changes themselves may cause a Financial Institution (FI) to reevaluate its CECL system a more important motivator might be experience. For most FIs, the CECL process...
Black Swans Don’t Live in AI

Black Swans Don’t Live in AI

Worry is within the purview of Team Regulator, and they do it well. This week, Gary Gensler of the SEC voiced his concern to FT that AI will cause substantial financial instability within the next decade. So here is his thinking: Financial institutions, especially...