The Financial Risk Group Is Now FRG

We’re making it official: After more than a decade of operating as “The Financial Risk Group,” we’re changing our name to reflect what our clients have called us since the early days. We are excited to formally debut our streamlined “FRG” brand and logo.

Our new look is a natural progression from where we started 14 years ago, when the three founding partners of this company set a lofty goal. We wanted to become the premier risk management consulting company. It seemed ambitious, considering we were operating out of Ron Holanek’s basement at the time, but we knew we had at least two things going for us: a solid business plan and a drive to do whatever it took to deliver success for our clients.

And look at us now. It would take a while to list everything we’ve accomplished over the last decade plus, but here’s a quick run down of some of the items we’ve crossed off the company bucket list since 2006.

  • We’ve grown our numbers from the original three to more than 50 talented risk consultants, analysts, and developers.
  • We moved out of the basement (it would have been a tight fit, considering). We settled in historic downtown Cary in 2008, but quickly spilled out of our main office there and into several satellite locations. In 2018 we bought an older building a few blocks away and renovated it to a gleaming modern office hub for our US headquarters.
  • We opened offices in Toronto, Canada and Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to better serve our clients around the world.
  • We opened several new business units, expanding on our original core focus of delivering automated technology solutions. Adding dedicated Data and Risk, Business Analytics, and Platform Hosting teams enlarged our wheelhouse, so that we have experts that can walk our clients through the entire lifecycle of risk management programs. (Shameless plug: you can learn more about a number of them via a series of videos that are sprinkled throughout the website). We now also work with institutional investors on innovative models and product offerings to help streamline processes and drive excess returns.
  • We formalized our NEET (New Employee Excellence Training) apprenticeship program, so we can nurture and enhance the specific blend of skills that risk management professionals need to solve real-world business challenges. The program has struck a chord with our clients, so we built a program to recruit and develop risk management talent for them, as well.

Obviously, we couldn’t have done any of this without continued trust and support from our clients. Our clientele represents a cross section of the world’s largest banking, capital markets, insurance, energy and commodity firms – stretching across continents and across industries – and we recognize that they’re some very smart people. When they talk, we listen, and what they have been saying for a few years now is that the brand we started with in 2006 should evolve with the evolution of the company.

It is natural for people to streamline words into acronyms.  In our industry, there are many, and knowing them is very important to our job.  Our clients, partners, and even our internal teams used FRG from day one, but now is the time to make it official.  By rebranding and fully embracing the FRG name, we hope that it, too, becomes a well-known acronym in the risk management space, one that people equate with integrity and quality of work.

So we’re celebrating 2020 with the new name, a new look, and a new logo. But it’s like they say. The more things change, the more they stay the same. That’s why you can be sure that our core values, our core principle – to fulfill our clients’ needs, while surpassing their expectations – still guide us every day. We are our reputation. We are FRG.

Mike Forno is a Partner and Senior Director of Sales with FRG.

 

Forecasting Capital Calls and Distributions

Early in his career, one of us was responsible for cash flow forecasting and liquidity management at a large multiline insurance company. We gathered extensive historical data on daily concentration bank deposits, withdrawals, and balances and developed an elementary but fairly effective model. Because insurance companies receive premium payments from and pay claims to many thousands of individuals and small companies, we found we could base reasonably accurate forecasts on the quarter of the year, month of the quarter, week of the month, and day of the week, taking holidays into account. This rough-and-ready approach enabled the money market traders to minimize overnight balances, make investment decisions early in the morning, and substantially extend the average maturity of their portfolios. It was an object lesson in the value of proactive cash management.

It is not such a trivial matter for investors in private capital funds to forecast the timing and amount of capital calls and distributions. Yet maintaining adequate liquidity to meet obligations as they arise means accepting either a market risk or an opportunity cost that might be avoided. The market risk comes from holding domestic large-cap stocks that will have to be sold quickly, whatever the prevailing price, when a capital commitment is unexpectedly drawn down; the opportunity cost comes from adopting a defensive posture and holding cash or cash equivalents in excess of the amount needed for ongoing operations, especially when short-term interest rates are very low.

FRG is undertaking a financial modeling project aimed at forecasting capital calls and distributions. Our overall objective is to help investors with outstanding commitments escape the unattractive alternatives of holding excess cash or scrambling to liquidate assets to meet contractual obligations whose timing and amount are uncertain. To that end, we seek to assist in quantifying the risks associated with allocation weights and to understand the probability of future commitments so as to keep the total portfolio invested in line with those weights.

In other words, we want to make proactive cash management possible for private fund investors.

As a first step, we have formulated some questions.

  1. How do we model the timing and amount of capital calls and disbursements? Are there exogenous variables with predictive power?
  2. How do the timing of capital calls and disbursements correlate between funds of different vintages and underlying types (e.g., private equity from venture capital to leveraged buyouts, private credit, and real estate, among others)?
  3. Do private funds’ capital calls and distributions correlate with public companies’ capital issuance and dividend payout decisions?
  4. How do we model the growth of invested capital? What best explains the returns achieved before money is returned to LPs?
  5. What triggers distributions? 
  6. How do we allocate money to private funds keeping an eye on total invested capital vs. asset allocation weights?
    1. The timing of capital calls and distributions is probabilistic (from #1). 
    2. Diversification among funds can produce a smooth invested capital profile.  But we need to know how these funds co-move to create distributions around that profile (from #2).
    3. Confounding problem is the growth of invested capital (from #3).  This growth affects total portfolio value and the asset allocation weights.  If total exposure is constrained, what is the probability of breaching those constraints?

We invite front-line investors in limited partnerships and similar vehicles to join the discussion. We would welcome and appreciate your input on the conceptual questions. Please contact Dominic Pazzula at info@frgrisk.com if you have an interest in this topic.

Risk Premia Portfolio Case Study

See how FRG’s VOR (Visualization of Risk) platform works for a major U.S. foundation: download a case study that explores how we customized VOR application tools to help them with their day-to-day portfolio management activities, as well as their monthly analysis and performance reporting.

The study shows how FRG was able to leverage its econometric expertise, system development capability and logistical strength to empower the foundation’s specialized investment team. Read the study, and learn more about VOR, here.

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